Terrible Tuesday and the CPA exam

I am taking part of the exam today, thus making it a terrible Tuesday.
I am currently studying for and trying to finish the CPA Exam, and it is tough. Long hours spent in isolation going over and over concepts and topics that might be tested. One of my old college professors told me once that is a time exercise, how much you put in is what you will get out. I find that to be true about most things in life. You put in the effort and you reap the reward. Hopefully, I can reap some of those today. In the same light how can you expect to reap benefits of something you didn't even sow.  Which brings us to....


Terrible Tuesday time again and this week...it's none other than Chad 85

Ok, here's the long and short of it. Chad has had a big off season, but not in the way you might think. He spent a lot of time on less than football related stuff. That being said.... The Bengals are a run first team, Carson Palmer is not the best QB in the world,and did they not pick up some receivers? Oh yeah, Terrell Owens, and a TE named Gresham who might as well be a WR. So let's recap...do i think 85 will catch passes? Yes. Will he score a touchdown? Yes. Will he be the best wide out on the team? Maybe yes. Will he end the season worth what you paid for him (which would be a third round pick)? NO way. I would rather have Steve Smith (Giants), Wes Welker, or Crabtree, all guys who are going around him, over Ochocinco. Again I'm not saying he won't have value. I just think there are better guys at WR in the 4th round. 

Draft of the week

Well it's Monday again folks, and the season is right around the corner. The fantasy world is buzzing as we enter the last few weeks before the start of the season. So what better to get your week started with than a little pick-up....
Monday Pickup Draft...

Jermichael Finley.

Why is he draft of the week? Well let's see... currently Finley is going 7th amoung tight ends and 64th overall. I think that is possibly 2 rounds too low. I've been way up on this guy this year. Last year he proved to be decent but remember he did not start until about mid-season, and it's hard to get involved in the offense that late in the year. Personally I think Finley could have a year much like what Vernon Davis had last year. In the last 2 preseason games he has caught 10 passes for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. I'm telling you I like this guy to be easy top five, maybe top three, by year end, and to catch 90 balls for about 1,000 yards (I won't predict touchdowns.)

Running Backs by value...

Ok it's time for the 2nd "value" edition of the blog.. Again, remember these are in no way the top 3 running backs, these guys are the running backs I think will give you the most points for where they are going in the draft.

WHO-DAT value?
Pierre Thomas

Led the Saints in offensive touches, in 2009? Best offiense in football? Do I need to say something else. Currently going 36th overall.

I think this guy has good upside and potential this year, especially with Mike Bell gone. With that said, I would say Thomas has 3 weeks this year with 15+ fantasy points. Also I think he has at least 2 weeks with 5 or less. All in all I think he can be a solid #2. Just don't come crying to me the week he scores 3 fantasy points. Remember he is on one of my teams as well, so we can suffer together.

Arian Foster (see Monday Pickup below)

Currently going 76th  in ESPN standard 10 team leagues. I mean, a starting back in the 7th round, that's good value, I can eat on that all week.








Shocker alert....
Ahman Bradshaw
Yeah that's the "other" running back for the Giants. Ok here is the deal. One, last year the Giants' defense was bad, and they had to throw the ball all the time to have a chance to win a game. This year I see the Giants getting the defense back on track, and balancing the offense a bit more (that's why I think Manning #2 Eli is not someone you want on your team this year). From word out of Giants camp they seem to like Bradshaw more the Brandon Jacobs. All these reasons above are why Bradshaw is in the "value" aisle. Currently going about the 105th pick... just get him, sit on him, and in a few weeks you will have a starting HB. That's my thought anyway.

Arizona... you've got a Terrible Tuesday

I remember when I was a kid some of my favorite toys were small 1/64 scale Nascars. Usually on Sunday afternoon I would line these toys up in the floor and perform my own mini Nascar race, which usually ended in a favorable outcome for Mark Martin, my favorite driver at the time. Over the course of a few years, things changed, I became more interested in wrestling figures, Transformers, and the like. Currently I have no idea where my Nascar toys are, or do I have any interest in racing or the drivers. As I look back I think its funny to see how important things were to us at one point, but due to changing times and circumstances are no longer that important. For instance:

1. Pagers
2. Home Phones 
3. Baseball Cards
4. Myspace

I could go on and on. In the fantasy football world there are several players that fit this mold as well, think LaDainian Tomlinson or Matt Forte. At least for this year you can add this guy to the list...

This weeks Terrible Tuesday pick is.... Larry Fitzgerald.

Why you ask?

This guy is why. Enter Matt Leinart. (I Despise USC by the way) He played there so that info was relevant.

With Kurt Warner (former Arizona QB) at home eating cheese puffs on Sundays this season. A new era for the Cardinals is upon the fantasy world. That era is one where Fitzgerald may not be the consistent, no brainer every week start, guaranteed double digit points, he once was. Let's time travel to 2009 week 12, and throw out some numbers..... 4 for 34.... what's that you say? Fitz's catch totals and yards with Leinart at QB for the entire game. In short is Fitz worth having in fantasy football? Yes of course, but I would let someone else have him. He is going as the 4th wide receiver in fantasy currently. There is no way in an offense with a "new" QB he can have that kind of year. Let someone else take him too high....

Pickup of the Week College Style

Fall is just around the corner, and not soon enough. This has been a long, hot and miserable summer. With the soon arrival of fall comes mine and probably most of your favorite time of year. No kids not Thanksgiving or Halloween, football season. Since Julie and I live just an hour from Knoxville, our last few falls have consisted of several trips to see the Tennessee Volunteers play football. Any one who knows me knows that I live and die on Saturdays by the Texas Longhorns, but it is still fun to drive to Knoxville and root for my number 2 team if you will. Game day Saturdays usually involve riding to Knoxville with my father in-law, because he is nice enough to let us use 2 of the seats he has, visiting the campus bookstore, watching the crowds, and finding something good to eat. Overall the experience of a game day Saturday in Knoxville is wonderful, even though the Vols might not be your favorite team. So what does any of that have to do with the Monday Pickup???? Nothing really, apart from UT being the alma-mater for today’s guy, Arian Foster.



Monday Pickup – Arian Foster

Why you say? Well, let’s take a look shall we.

Foster is currently going 77th in the draft for ESPN standard leagues, and 32 among running backs. Currently he is 1st on the depth chart for the Texans. Last year in the 4 times he took the field for the Texans, he rushed 54 times for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns totalling 47 fantasy points. Steve Slation is the only threat to his playing time as I see it. I think this guy is an easy every week flex play who just might make his way into your starting line up. The Texans love to score, and with Andre Johnson on the field the defense will be all over him, leaving a little less for Foster.

Farve?

Well, well Iron Brett is back and frankly I couldn't care less. I'm just totally over all the I'm in I'm out, I'm retiring I'm not stuff. Brett just play or don't, I could care less. That being said, over the next few weeks I am going to try to bring you some fantasy insight concerning players and value. I am going to list the players at each position that I think will have the most "Value". To truly do this right you need to know that Value is. Value in terms of fantasy football would mean the most fantasy points, for the lowest draft position. So If I told you the best quarterback in terms of value was Tony Romo, I'm not saying he will be the best fantasy QB. I am simply saying he will provide the most points for where he is going in the draft.

That said....

Top 3Quarterbacks by value.

Tony Romo: According to ESPN standard leagues he is currently going 37th overall (3rd round) and 7th among QB's. I am real high on the cowboys offense this year and I think that Romo could be the number 1 fantasy QB by the end of the year. With Romo you could get 1st round production in the 3rd round that's why he is the number 1 value.

Joe Flacco: Flacco currently drafted 52 in ESPN standard leagues 8th in QB's. I think this guy could emerge as a top tier guy by the end of the year. So if you miss on Brees, Rodgers, Manning,Brady or Romo I think he is your guy. Last Year Flacco had 3,600 passing yards, 21 TD's, and a 63% completion rate. Not bad for a 5th round QB with a ton of upside.

Sorry I could not resist the old Farve photo and the SI Caption.


Iron Farve: Currently going in the 8th round 86th overall 11 among QB'S. I think that Farve could have a good year again this year. I don't think he will get to 4,000 yards or 30+ touchdowns, but with an injury free average year this guy is tremendous value in the 8th round. I will tell you there is not much upside here, but if you wait on a QB and Farve is still around don't be afraid of him.

.

Terrible Tuesday

I really do not like crowds, (statement of fact). We went to a local mall a few weeks ago to look for some clothes for our expected child. Like he really needs more clothes, but anyway. To say the least it was tax free weekend and I can honestly say that there is no way that place could have been more crowded if it were day after thanksgiving. There were no parking spots, people parked in the grass on sides of hills, it was nasty. Having so many people in such a small place makes it hard to accomplish anything, and makes it very frustrating for everyone.

Just like a crowd in a mall all the "running back by committee" situations around the NFL are a nightmare for fantasy owners. There are two teams the Panthers and the Dolphins each of which will have 2 backs that will both have good fantasy value, beyond that who knows. To coin the old phrase 3 is a crowd, and 4 is even  worse. Which brings us to Terrible Tuesday.

ANY PATRIOTS RUNNING BACK

Kevin Faulk, Maroney, BenJaruivs Green-Ellis, or Sammy Morris.

When it comes to football the mind of Pat's head coach Bill Belichick is a steel trap, but when it comes down to which running back to start it must be full of cob webs, spiders, and old clothes. I can't see any reason at this point why I would own any of these guys ( not because they won't have some sort or value, its because no one knows which one will have value). At some point in the season one of them might emerge as the clear number one, but until then please let someone else in your league worry about whether to sit or start one of these guys in the crowd. You have been warned.

              
  In the first preseason game alone 3 out of 4 of these guys got touches. Maroney got 2 goal line        
  vulture scores. BenJaruivs Green-Ellis (all one guy) got 11 touches and a score. Whew, welcome to a running back crowd. I hate crowds this is one you can't be in.

Draft Special and Pickup of the Week

Draft Special and Pickup of the Week.

Some folks are spontaneous, others are not. I tend to lie on the non spontaneous side. In fact I will go so far as to say I’m a planner. I like it when my schedule is full and I have things planned. It makes me feel good. For others if their days were planned out they would feel trapped. For instance my parents always seem to invite my wife and I to do things spur of the moment when we are already busy.  I usually decline, not because I don’t like spending time with them, but because my day is already planned. Having my days planned allows me to fit in the things I want to accomplish without feeling like I have wasted the whole day.

Your draft in fantasy football needs planning as well, otherwise you will not know how to react in certain situations, and just like me you may end up feeling like you wasted some picks at the end.  I think that going into a draft you should mock up a draft board ( a draft board would be your very own rankings of what players you would take and were in each round of the draft) , or at the very least have some kind of idea of who you would like to take in the first few rounds.  In doing this you are better prepared to react when things don’t go your way in the draft.

Going into the 2010 fantasy football season I have heard a lot of “experts” say that it’s not a bad idea to draft wide receivers early and build depth in running backs later in the draft. For example make 2 of your first 4 picks receivers, then take an elite QB and a running back something like that. This new theory is in large part because of all the “running back by committee” situations in the NFL.  Some examples;  say  you are drafting in the first 4 slots,  the draft selection is easy.  You should take the remainder of Chris Johnson, All day Peterson, Maurice Jones Drew or Ray Rice. I also think that if you are drafting after that and any of those guys are available then you draft one of the guys mentioned before. That being said,  I think if you are drafting  5^th or later and the “big 4” are gone I would take an Aaron Rogers, Andre Johnson, Drew Brees, or Randy Moss type guy. Then in the second round look for the slightly undervalued Shonn Green Why??????         (First round value – second round pick). Which brings us to our….

Pickup Draft of the Week. 

Shonn Green

Why am I so high on this Guy? Jet's and rushing attempts enough said. How many last year? 607 Think about this for a minute if the Jet's rush 600 times again this year, and Green gets half of them that's 300. Yeah, I'm good at math I know. In 2009 Green averaged 5 yards per carry on 108 attempts and 2 TD's. So back to this year lets, say Green gets a theoretical 300 rushing attempts and averages 4 yards per carry, that's 1,200 yards. Thomas Jones in 2009 had 14 touchdowns on 1,400 yards on the same offense. Given all this information I see Green having a minimum 1,200 yard 12 touchdown season. Easily enough to be a first round pick in a standard league, but currently going at 20th so late second early third. If you go with a QB or receiver in the first round this guy should be your number 2 pick. Remember that!

Top 30

Simply put my top 30.

After Watching some of the " fantasy experts" blow up a mock draft the other day, I have decided to give you my top 30 going into the preseason. Seems fairly straight forward, but everyone has their own opinions.

Top 30

1. Chris Johnson
2. "All Day" Adrian Peterson 
3. Ray Rice 
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Michael Turner ( This guy has great upside, no running back by committee situation here.) 
6. Andre Johnson
7. Drew Brees
8. Steven Jackson
9. Frank Gore
10. Randy Moss
11. Aaron Rogers
12. Shonn Green  (Love, Love, Love this guy)
13. DeAngelo Williams 
14. Peyton Manning 
15. Ryan Grant 
16. Reggie Wayne 
17. Larry Fitzgerald
18. Rashard Mendenhall
19. Tom Brady 
20. Miles Austin
21. Calvin Johnson 
22. Brandon Marshall
23. Roddy White 
24. Knowshon Moreno
25. Cedric Benson
26. Desean Jackson
27. Greg Jennings 
28. Matt Shaub
29. Marques Colston
30. Beanie Wells

Preseason?

My wife and I are currently expecting our first child in November and I am very excited! This month we are going to child birth classes. In class we learned about breathing techniques, pain management, we got a hospital tour, and we get a class on new born care. A person with a football mind like myself, might equate this to the NFL preseason. In preseason football you learn what to "expect" from your team, how they will look and what they will do in certain situations, well at least in theory. As many of you may know, just because you practiced something in a class it does not mean you can pull it off in real life. Real life has many more variables. The same can be said about applying the NFL preseason to fantasy football.

So...

What can the preseason tell us about fantasy football? In short not too much.

The first few preseason games are largely uneventful. The starters will typically only be in the game for a drive or two. After that is pretty much just players fighting to get off the practice squad.

Typically in the last preseason game of the year none of the starters will play. They are resting up for the start of the season.

Wait what about the third week?

Ah, in the third preseason game we will typically see most teams use the starters for at least a quarter and maybe the entire first half. So what should we look for from our potential starters / potential draft picks?

1. What is the time share between Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones? Remember word out of Chiefs camp is Thomas Jones is the number one guy.
2. What role will T.O. play in Cincinnati? Is he the solid number 2 guy?
3. Favre? I can't say anymore, I might get sick.
4. Ryan Matthews, rookie Chargers what kind of looks will he get? Is he worthy of the 2nd round average draft position he is getting. Remember Norv Turner? Yeah, he's the coach so who knows.
5. Will any rookie quarterbacks be worth drafting? (I can already tell you this is NO)
6. What is the rushing situation is Seattle? Justin Forsett, Julius Jones, or Quinton Ganther ? One of these guys should have fantasy value. It's just hard to know which one, and which week. 

After the 3 week of the preseason I will revisit some of these questions and see if I can answer them. 

Terrible Tuesday & Pack Rats

We all can be pack rats at times or at least you know someone who is. "Pack ratting" is the act of keeping things lying around that should have never been kept, and keeping those things for way longer than necessary. I'm guilty. I still have old college accounting notes and textbooks I can't seem to part with. I have old clothes I will never fit into again. I have stuff on my computer I probably don't even know is there. So on this Tuesday I urge you to clean out the recycle bin on the desktop, clean out the closet and for goodness sake , GET ANTHONY GONZALEZ OFF YOUR FANTASY TEAM...

I know someone out there reading kept him all last year incase he "might" come back. If that's the case you "pack ratted" Gonzalez, please don't make that mistake again. 

Disclaimer - I'm not saying that my terrible Tuesday picks aren't good players, nice people, or won't have fantasy value. I'm saying that these guys will not have enough fantasy impact to be considered in a 10 - 12 team league this year.

Anthony was on injured reserve all last year, but never returned to the field. Unfortunately for him while he was gone Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie went off. According to the Colts website Gonzalez is going to have to work his was back onto the field to maybe be the number 4 receiver in a 4 wide receiver set. So if you got him get rid of him and pick up Jacoby Jones (see Mondays post), or T.O. or someone else who will at least see the field. After all you are trying to win right????

Kickoff and Pickup of the week

Now that introductions are out of the way time for the first real post. Lets get down to business. It's Monday so its time for:

"Pickup of the Week"

Player : Jacoby Jones

Team : Houston Texans

Listen guys, I'm way down on Kevin Walter and his role in the offense this year. Jones is a superb athlete and he will be playing across the field from the best wide receiver in the game (Andre Johnson), which means this guy will draw inadequate coverage all year. In addition, Jones had 3 double digit fantasy games and 70 total points last year to Walter's 2 double digit games and 66 total points, and Jones was third string. I know Jacoby Jones is on your wavier wire, so if you need to build depth at wide receiver or want to fill a roster spot with a guy who has great upside. It's Jacoby Jones. GET EM'

Game Plan.

A game plan can be defined as a carefully thought out strategy for achieving an objective.

The game plan for this blog.... simple, fantasy football information to help you win your league.

The goal to provide simple fantasy football advice to everyone from the average to the advanced fantasy player. 

I have studied the game of fantasy football for several years now. I created this blog to provide myself with a way to share my research and love of the fantasy game with all of you. During the weeks that come I hope to provide you with new, informative and unique fantasy information. I hope to post several times a week on a wide range of topics. On Mondays I will do a "pickup of the week" post, highlighting the guy or guys that may be on your wavier wire that you should go and get asap. On Tuesday I will do a "terrible Tuesday" which will pick out the player I know all of you drafted and played and should have dropped weeks ago. On Fridays I will do "Friday Feast or Famine" which will address some of those tough sit or start questions of the week. 

Finally, I hope you enjoy the Blog as my piece of fantasy advice. Remember all opinions expressed in this blog are mine, and are just opinions. Please use as many sources of fantasy information as you can and make educated and wise choices. Good Luck this year....